What has to happen for UCLA to make it to the NCAA tournament? There are three options for the Bruins.
Joe Lunardi hasn’t been watching a lot of UCLA basketball lately, despite being paid to keep an eye on teams that might qualify for the NCAA tournament.
The ESPN analyst has only received advice to keep an eye on the Bruins from a few fans on social media.
At last, they are within the reach of a space telescope from the biggest stage in college basketball.
The Times was informed on Wednesday by bracket forecaster Lunardi that the NCAA tournament would take place “light months, not light years away.”
Despite winning five straight games, UCLA (13-11 overall, 8-5 Pac-12) is not in danger of making the tournament. The biggest offenders are a terrible performance in the nonconference portion of the schedule and an 0–6 record in “Quad 1” games, which are regarded as the ultimate indicator of tournament worthiness. In addition to failing to record any significant victories in November or December, the Bruins finished 6-10 overall and suffered a home loss to Cal State Northridge.
A powerful conclusion might bring salvation.
In the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, one of the metrics used by the tournament selection committee to choose and seed teams, UCLA has already jumped nearly 100 spots to No. 111. That is an improvement from a season-worst No. 209 after the Bruins’ defeat by Utah on January 11 by 46 points.
Estimating UCLA’s distance from his “Last Four In” to be between 20 and 25 spots, Lunardi described two scenarios in which the Bruins could qualify for the NCAA tournament without earning the automatic bid that comes with winning the Pac-12 tournament.
Scenario 1: Win their remaining seven games in the regular season, beginning at Pauley Pavilion on Thursday night against Colorado (16-8, 7-6). That would give the Bruins a 20-11 record (or, more importantly, a semi-respectable 3-6 record in Quad 1 games against elite teams) and 19-11 for the purposes of the tournament selection committee, which would discount a victory over Chaminade due to its Division II status.
Regarding the Bruins’ chances of qualifying for the tournament given their resume and the additional presumption that they avoided losing to a poor team in the Pac-12 tournament’s opening round, Lunardi said, “They would be right there with that.”
Win six of their next seven games, including at least two in Quad 1 contests—those against teams with a NET ranking of 1 to 15 at home, 1 to 50 at a neutral venue, or 1 to 75 away. This is scenario number two.
UCLA still has three Quad 1 games remaining on its schedule: a home game against Arizona and two away games against Washington and Washington State. With a 19-13 record that included a 2-7 record in Quad 1 games, where would the Bruins stand in terms of tournament consideration?
Lunardi remarked, “They would be right on the edge.”
Since 2019, the year before coach Mick Cronin took over, UCLA has not missed the tournament. After finishing 8-9 through mid-January, it appeared as though the Bruins would finish last in Cronin’s first season. However, they went on to win 11 of their next 14 games, including five Quad 1 games, to secure their spot on the bubble. Before the coronavirus pandemic destroyed the remainder of the season, Lunardi named UCLA as one of his final four teams to qualify for the tournament.
Only Mark Few of Gonzaga, Tom Izzo of Michigan State, and Bill Self of Kansas have led their teams to 12 straight NCAA tournaments dating back to Cronin’s final nine seasons at Cincinnati. Cronin declared that he’s Not bothering to reach position 13.
Continue reading: “I want this to be my last job.” Despite hardship, Mick Cronin says he is dedicated to UCLA.
Cronin remarked, “You know, it’s the last thing on my mind.” It simply isn’t relevant. If we can get to the point where that is a genuine conversation—which it isn’t at the moment—I’ll be proud of our guys. At this point, we have to improve. Every day, I just keep trying to tell these guys that the secret to success in life—not just for their career, but for everyone—is that while many people get up and go through the motions, very few actually try to get things done and be productive every day.
The key to UCLA’s recovery has been discovering an offense to complement its potent defense; the Bruins averaged 70.3 points in winning seven of their previous eight games as opposed to their previous record of 64.2 points. In addition, the Bruins’ improved rebounding and ball handling skills contributed to their victory over California last weekend despite their poor shooting performance of just 36.2%.
But before going on this rampage, did UCLA shoot itself in the foot too many times?
In case you were wondering, the selection committee no longer prioritizes winning a lot of games early in the season over late-season performance. Additionally, winning the conference regular-season title does not guarantee anything. In 2012, Washington won the Pac-12 and, following a loss to Oregon State in the conference tournament’s opening round, was awarded a trip to the National Invitation Tournament.
The fact that UCLA has five of its final seven games at home helps the team in its attempt to maintain its momentum. Brandon Williams, a rookie forward, admitted that his team has been considering the tournament as they have been working to earn one of the 36 at-large spots.
Regarding qualifying for the tournament, Williams stated, “We have a real good opportunity because we’ve been on our winning streak.” “.. That would truly be the realization of a dream.
Additionally, it would finish the kind of revival that Cronin instituted.
“Is it possible for them to be among the teams in the relay race that run to the tape during the fourth leg after receiving the baton five or six games ago?” stated Lunardi. “Yes, since they could still win a few games, finish first in the league, and receive a bye in the conference tournament,”
In any case, it will be entertaining to watch considering how far the Bruins have already progressed.
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This article first published in the Los Angeles Times.
